No one, not the NFL stat guys, not the college guys, nor the networks geeks, seems to have figured this out for some reason. It is simple mathematics and is related to expected value.
Note: will ignore the two point conversion and just count that as a bonus.
If a team gets inside the 20 yard line ten times, then their maximum scoring potential is simply 70 points.
- If they kick 4 field goals and score 5 touch downs (+PATs), then they have produced 47 point.
- Their red zone scoring efficiency is simply 47/70 or 67.14%.
Have seen some people call this a 50% RZ efficiency (5 TDs out 10) and have seen others have it as a 90% RZ efficiency (9 scoring out of 10).
The real formula (please):
Points scored after crossing the opponents 20, divided by, seven times the number of times crossed the 20.
You read it here first, soon everyone will be using this formula.
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